Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

A couple reviews paperwork with a real estate professional pointing to a document.

Hoping for (or Dreading) a Housing Crash? The Experts Just Weighed In.

October 1, 2026

Half the buyers out there are scared home prices are about to crash. The other half are hoping they will.

A recent survey from Clever found 58% of Gen Z buyers are actually rooting for a crash, just so homeownership feels within reach.

So, what do the forecasts actually say?

Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts on where prices are headed. The newest results are in. And spoiler alert: they’re not calling for a crash – not even the pessimists.

What the Newest Numbers Actually Say

The panel’s latest forecast has prices climbing every single year through at least 2030.

The panel’s average forecast is that prices will rise by 14.7% in the next 5 years. And here’s where it gets really interesting. If you split these experts into optimists and pessimists, even the pessimists still expect prices to increase about 6.6% by the end of 2030 (see graph below):

a graph showing the price of a home

The takeaway? If you’ve been waiting for prices to fall, you may be waiting a while.

One thing to keep in mind though – these are national numbers. Prices in your area could run a little hotter or a little cooler than this, so it helps to know what’s happening locally, too. But the big picture is prices aren’t crashing. Historically prices usually rise.

How This Quarter Compares to the Past

Here’s something you probably don’t realize. This survey runs 4 times every year, so you can track the panel’s mood over time.

A year ago, the panel expected home prices to grow 2.1% this year. Now they’re forecasting 2.5%. That means the near-term outlook actually got more optimistic. But that’s only part of the story. The years after that shifted, too (see graph below):

a graph of growth in a graph

Zoom out to 2027 through 2029 and the mood has cooled a bit. Each of those years is now expected to see a little less growth than the panel thought a year ago. That’s likely a reflection of where we are right now with everything that’s impacting the housing market.

But again, the overall takeaway here is every bar shows an increase in prices – the size of that increase has just moderated due to some of the factors at play.

A slower climb isn’t a bad thing, though. It’s a sign the market is settling into a more normal pace after a few wild years.

A little more growth here, a little less growth there. What hasn’t budged once is the idea that home prices will keep growing.

What It Means for Your Next Move

Now, percentages are great, but you probably care more about the actual dollars and cents of your move, so let’s graph that out, too.

Run the numbers on a $400,000 home bought in January, and the panel’s latest forecast puts you up about $58,000 in equity in 5 years just from price growth (see graph below):

a graph of growth in a number of green squares

That’s real wealth you could be building while others sit on the sidelines, waiting for a crash the experts don’t see coming. And with prices expected to keep rising, waiting could mean paying more for the same home later.

Bottom Line

Whether you're bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the verdict is the same – prices are still expected to rise, not fall. Talk with a local real estate agent about what that means for your market and your plans.



Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

Two Moves That Can Get You Into Your First Home Sooner

For a lot of first-time buyers, owning a home can feel perpetually a few years out of reach. Saving for a down payment takes time, and each year you spend renting can … Read more

Wooden block marked with a red percent sign on a tabletop.
Thinking About Waiting for Lower Mortgage Rates? Read This First.

Imagine waiting a year to buy a home, only to find mortgage rates haven’t changed much. That may sound frustrating.But it’s a real possibility.

Rolled U.S. hundred-dollar bills secured with yellow bands on a peach surface.
The Long-Term Cost of Renting vs. Buying

Real estate professional discusses documents with a client across a desk.
Here’s Where To Start if You’re Selling and Buying at the Same Time

If you’re a homeowner getting ready to move, one question usually comes first: should you buy your next home before you sell, or sell your current house before you sta… Read more

Aerial view of homes and parked cars along a tree-lined residential street.
What Higher Mortgage Rates Mean for Home Sellers

Higher mortgage rates don’t just affect buyers. They can change what it takes to sell your house, too. That’s because today’s buyers are paying close attention to aff… Read more

White-sided home entry with a charcoal paneled door, oak canopy, and brick-edged planting bed.
The Los Altos Farmers Market Has Two Closing Dates

A couple reviews paperwork with a real estate professional pointing to a document.
Hoping for (or Dreading) a Housing Crash? The Experts Just Weighed In.

Wooden percentage blocks beside miniature house tokens, illustrating real estate rates.
The Mortgage Rate You See Online Isn’t Necessarily the One You’d Get. FacebookTwitterPinterestLinkedIn You may have seen the headlines saying mortgage rates have climbed to the highest point since January 2025. And if that’s left you reluctant to buy a home, here’s what you need to remember… That’s not necessarily the number you’d get. It’s a common misconception that the rate you see in the headlines is the same one you’d get when you buy. The truth is, mortgage rates shift often, and the rate you actually end up with can vary a lot from what you may see or hear about. What Determines Your Real Rate? Advertised rates and “real rates” aren’t always the same. That’s because real rates are based on your specific situation, which includes your overall finances and goals. The rates you see in the headlines can’t possibly reflect that. That’s why only a lender can tell you what your real rate will be. To figure out your unique number, they’ll look at: Your credit score: Your credit score includes your payment history (if you’ve made late payments – and how often), credit utilization (are your accounts maxed out, or do you have available credit?), and the length of your credit history (how long have your accounts been open?). For example, someone with an exceptional credit score may qualify for a better rate. Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI): This is calculated by dividing your monthly debt payments by your monthly income before taxes to come up with a percentage. The higher your DTI, the higher your rate could be. The down payment size and Loan-to-Value (LTV): Your down payment is the percentage of the home’s price you will put down. The LTV is the percentage of a home’s sales price that equals your mortgage. The type and term of loan program options: Your loan officer will walk you through different loan options based on what you qualify for. Mortgage rates can vary between different loan products and programs. Even after you find a home you love, other things can have an impact too. For example: A mortgage rate buydown: This helps you get a lower mortgage rate, and by extension, a lower monthly payment, by paying an upfront cost. Sometimes a seller, builder, or another party may even offer to cover that cost themselves as an incentive for you to buy. Seller concessions: Sellers are allowed to pay buyer closing costs according to most loan program guidelines. Seller-paid closing costs can add up to thousands of dollars, which can free up some cash for you to increase your down payment, pay down debt, or make other financial adjustments to try to get a better rate. There’s a lot that can ultimately have an impact on your actual rate. Your First Step? Getting Pre-Approved. If you want to know if your number could be higher or lower than the headlines on social, you need to talk to an expert. A simple conversation with a loan officer can help you determine when you’ll be ready to buy, how much you can borrow, and of course, what your real rate will be. Your lender may recommend a pre-qualification and pre-approval: Pre-qualification is a general estimate of what you might be able to borrow based on self-reported information. On the flip side, pre-approval is actually a conditional commitment from a lender based on verified information. Just know that, of the two, the pre-approval process gives you a more accurate picture of your options than pre-qualification. Bankrate gives a quick comparison so you can see why: a blue and white chart with white text How To Get Ready for the Conversation Ask your lender what documents you’ll need to gather for that conversation. And keep these questions in your pocket too. They’re good things to go over when you talk: What will I gain or lose by waiting to buy a home for 3, 6, or 12 months? Will I get any tax advantages by buying a home – and what are they? What’s the benefit of buying a home and starting to build equity now versus waiting? And how does that impact my finances in the long run? How will rate changes in either direction affect me? Once you find out your rate, maybe you can buy now. Or maybe you still need to wait. But at least you’d know your options and can make an informed decision. Bottom Line Headlines and social media make today’s rates sound high. But you have to remember, the rate you’re seeing online and your actual rate could be different. The only way to know what your rate could be is to talk to a trusted lender. With the right help, you can find out what your real rate is – and where it can take you. Members: Sign in now to set up your Personalized Posts & start sharing today! Not a Member Yet? Click Here to learn more about KCM’s newest feature, Personalized Posts. « Why So Many Sellers Are Cutting Their Price Right Now September 28, 2026/by KCM CREW Language: English Español

You may have seen the headlines saying mortgage rates have climbed to the highest point since January 2025. And if that’s left you reluctant to buy a home, here’s what… Read more

White multi-story house with a furnished patio and autumn-colored trees behind the lawn.
Why So Many Sellers Are Cutting Their Price Right Now

Price cuts are turning up everywhere right now, and they read very differently depending on which side of the deal you’re on.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

Noopur Gupta played a pivotal role in helping us close our dream home and first real estate property, and our excitement knows no bounds. Being first-time real estate investors, we initially found the process quite intimidating. However, Noopur stood by us through every phase. She was consistently available to address our questions, offer reassurance, and provide valuable suggestions and always goes abov...

— Pratima Gluckman

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

We wanted to take a moment to express our deepest gratitude for all the hard work, dedication, and expertise you have put into helping us find and close our future dream home. Working with you throughout this journey has been an absolute pleasure, and we are overjoyed with the outcome. Your promptness and responsiveness was what set you apart from others. Even during the closing process, we truly appreci...

— Buyer

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

I had the pleasure of working with Noopur as my realtor, and I cannot say enough good things about her. Noopur was incredibly on top of communication throughout the entire process. She went above and beyond to ensure that all parties involved were kept in the loop, and was transparent and honest in all communication. One of the things I appreciated most about working with Noopur was her willingness to he...

— Shashidhar D. | Buyer

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

While working with Noopur, I realized she's the perfect blend of big-tech professionalism combined with passion for real estate. Her product manager background truly shone through. Noopur was incredibly systematic, her analyses of homes and prices were spot-on, and she kept everyone informed with clear next steps. Additionally, as a seasoned real estate investor herself, Noopur's knowledge went far beyon...

— Devesh Y.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

We recently bought our home with Noopur in San Jose. It was a great experience working with her, having her in the house hunt journey has been comforting and a fulfilling experience! She does her fiduciary duty at all times by advocating for us as a buyer with full transparency. Also helped us with figuring out investment strategies as we were moving up. She is very dedicated, thorough, patient with a...

— Buyer

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

Even though we weren't first-time homebuyers, my wife and I still needed a lot of guidance navigating this competitive market. Noopur was an absolute rockstar! Her knowledge of the local market is top-notch. While we had some experience, the market had changed significantly since our last purchase. Noopur expertly brought us up to speed and identified homes that fit our evolving needs and preferences. S...

— Ranjan N.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

My experience with Noopur was outstanding. She exuded trustworthiness from the start, ensuring transparent communication and always prioritizing my best interests. Their negotiation skills were top-notch, securing favorable terms while maintaining positive relationships with all parties involved. Noopur was incredibly efficient, never missing a beat in the fast-paced real estate market. Her passion for ...

— Chaitali I.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

Noopur Gupta is a top-notch real estate agent who knows a lot about the local market, communicates well with her clients, and acts professionally. She is honest and reliable, good at negotiating, and quick to respond. Noopur loves her job and works hard to help clients, offering useful advice and making the whole process smooth and enjoyable. I would recommend Noopur to anyone looking to buy their dream ...

— Prasanth S.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

Noopur did an outstanding job in finding us our new vacation home. She is very thorough, and stays on top of everything. She showed us many good options, and laid down the pros and cons. She has great negotiating skills. I would work with her again in my future ventures.

— Buyer

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

Noopur, our exceptional real estate agent, made our search for a vacation home in Monterey County an absolute breeze! Her diligence, extensive area knowledge, and meticulous research truly set her apart. Noopur's deep understanding of the Monterey County area was evident as she guided us through a variety of beautiful properties. What truly stood out was her transparent approach – she walked us through ...

— Buyer

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

We loved working with Noopur on our recent home purchase. She is very experienced and savvy about real estate investments and made a complex process fairly easy. Noopur has a great understanding of the entire home buying process and is very knowledgeable of the area. We had a few challenges during the closing process, but she advised us and kept us informed each step of the way minimizing our stress. N...

— Anu T.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

We are out-of-state investors. Noopur Gupta knows Bay area and Marina like the back of her hand. She pinpointed neighborhoods with serious growth potential that fit my investment goals. In this game, local knowledge is power, and Noopur has plenty of it. It's rare to find a realtor with such a combination of local market knowledge, professionalism, dedication, and personalized service. I wholeheartedly r...

— Shaachi G. | Buyer

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

Noopur did an amazing job helping us find our home and at a great price! Her expertise in researching on the property, consistent communication with the listing agent and transparency in communicating with us at each step were huge pluses and built our trust on her. Noopur was very confident negotiating a good price. She was very responsive and available whenever we needed her, be it setting up home view...

— Arch A, | Buyer

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

Noopur did an outstanding job of assisting us with the buying of our house. Her expertise in the market's geographic area was good. She was very much involved in all aspects of closing. Her attitude towards everyone was friendly and responsive. Noopur carried out all the procedures painlessly and stress free for all of us. She was knowledgeable and was very hands on throughout the entire process. Thanks ...

— Manali D. | Buyer

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

Noopur did an outstanding job assisting us with the purchase of our first home. Her passion and expertise in real estate shone through every step of the way. She patiently guided us through the entire process, offering invaluable advice during the bidding phase and maintaining exceptional communication throughout. Looking back, Noopur's empathy and commitment to us were particularly commendable. She took...

— subu redfin | Bought a Single Family home in 2024 in Lorelei manor, Menlo park, CA.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

I cannot say enough about Noopur’s dedication, expertise, tireless work, attention to detail, and overall professionalism. She was so thorough on everything from market research to recommendations related to contractors, stagers, and title company. The effort she put into orchestrating all the people, communication, and moving parts was no small fete. She stayed focused and navigated the end to end proce...

— 6/12/2025 - atkins kerri | Sold a Single Family home in 2025 in Menlo oaks, Menlo park, CA.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

We recently closed on an investment property, and we couldn’t be more grateful to have worked with Noopur. From day one, she demonstrated exceptional trustworthiness, responsiveness, and professionalism. She was a true partner in our investment journey. She took the time to understand our financial goals and provided strategic insights on location selection, rental potential, and long-term appreciation. ...

— 6/8/2025 - asj ankit | Bought a home in 2025.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

I recently purchased my home in Palo Alto with invaluable guidance from Noopur. Throughout the entire process—bidding, buying, financing—she stood by us like a pillar, offering expert advice at every step. Her local knowledge about the area, strategic insights about how to think from an investment angle and creative financing approach made it possible. Without her support, we wouldn’t be in our dream hom...

— Ravi Benwal

Work With Noopur

My goal is to make the home buying/selling experience for my clients least stressful possible. I provide them resources, knowledge, insights, trusted consultants for finances, property management, vendors etc.