The Reality Behind Home Price Projections

The Reality Behind Home Price Projections

Headlines predicting an imminent housing market crash are grabbing attention—but they don’t tell the full story. Here's a clear, expert-backed look at where home prices are actually headed over the next few years.

In some markets this year, prices are plateauing—or dipping marginally—as more inventory becomes available. That’s expected when supply rises. But on a national level, the outlook is far more stable and far less dramatic than the alarmist headlines suggest.

Fannie Mae’s Q2 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) polled over 100 housing market experts. Their collective forecast: moderate, consistent home price growth—not a crash. The survey predicts about 2.9 % annual price growth in 2025 and 2.8 % in 2026 . This represents a slowdown from the 5.3 % increase in 2024 but still indicates positive appreciation ahead .

Within the survey, experts divide into a range of outlook groups: some optimistic, some cautious, but none forecasting a national price decline. This means even the most conservative projections still point to modest growth—not a crash.

That kind of more measured growth is healthier for the market overall. Regionally, certain areas may see prices stagnate or decline short-term, especially where listings surge. Other regions may outperform the national average due to strong demand and limited supply. But broadly, the trend is toward cooling from overheated spikes seen in recent years.

Why no crash? A combination of factors strengthens the housing market:

• Low foreclosure rates

• Stringent lending standards

• Record-high home equity among current owners

These conditions reduce the risk of distress sales that often drive price collapses.

So if you’re waiting for a major decline before deciding to buy, you might be waiting a while.

Bottom Line

The housing market is not headed for a crash. Instead, experts expect steady, sustainable growth, with modest regional fluctuations. National trends set the tone, but local conditions—like zip‑code‑level inventory and pricing—will ultimately determine what matters for your situation. Chatting with a local real estate agent can shed light on what the data means for your neighborhood.